This article was first published in Harvard Business Review and is available via subscription.
Where pessimists see signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Paul Swartz, and Martin Reeves see evidence of underlying fundamental strengths. Consumers’ financial health and consumption trends paint a picture of durability, and a 2024 recession as a result of monetary policy remains unlikely.
The macroeconomic strengths don’t negate micro challenges, though. The soft landing underway has many hard edges. But the authors argue that the relevant mental model is past eras of tightness—many good outcomes, although not all will be easy for companies.
To navigate in this environment, executives need to resist the temptation to respond to every wrinkle in the volatile macroeconomic data and recognize that the structural foundations of the U.S. economy are rooted in strength that will persist across business cycles.