Countries bordering the North Seas have committed to ambitious offshore wind targets of 120 GW by 2030 and 300 GW by 2050 to support decarbonization, energy security, and industrial competitiveness. BCG’s analysis shows a widening gap between these ambitions and actual delivery. The current pace of expansion has stagnated in recent years and remains far below what is required. Delayed investment decisions, underperforming auctions, and long project timelines are already putting the 2030 and 2050 targets at risk. Without decisive action, today’s shortfalls threaten to translate into structural delays for the next decade.
The report finds that progress is often assessed too late, once capacity additions or failed auctions are already visible. Many of the most important early indicators for offshore wind expansion are not systematically tracked or lack transparency. This limits the ability of policymakers and industry stakeholders to react in time, adjust frameworks, and address emerging bottlenecks before they slow down deployment.
To address this, the report introduces a KPI-based monitoring approach that shifts the focus from retrospective assessment to forward-looking steering. By tracking a small set of critical indicators across the offshore wind sector, decision-makers can identify risks earlier, target interventions more effectively, and keep expansion efforts on course.
Published in time for the North Sea Summit 2026 in Hamburg, the report provides a fact-based snapshot of where the region stands today and sets out why closer monitoring and coordinated action are now essential.