War on Ukraine

BCG Executive Perspectives: War in Ukraine

This special edition of the BCG Executive Perspectives series assesses the economic impact of the war in Ukraine and the implications it bears for companies and governments.

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Global Update and Perspective on Energy Transition

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing governments and companies to make hard choices that threaten to slow the transition to sources of low-carbon energy and further complicate the fight against global warming. Decision makers face a difficult balancing act as they confront the “energy trilemma” of rising costs, energy-security concerns, and environmental pressures. Responses vary by country and region, depending largely on energy resources and constraints. For their part, energy companies should reassess capital investment strategies to ease the dependence on a few countries, improve the efficiency of power generation, and focus more on low-carbon fuels. The priorities for companies in other industries include recalibrating their energy usage to improve resilience and accelerating their shift toward renewable sources.

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War in Ukraine Executive Perspectives - Energy Transition

Perspective on Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment is cooling worldwide. Uncertainty over the war in Ukraine, the pandemic, inflation, and the economy is forcing consumers to focus more of their spending on essentials and less on discretionary expenses. But the main reasons for this shift in sentiment differ by market. There are also some silver linings. Although consumers in Asia are increasingly worried about the impact of COVID-19, for example, those in Western markets are optimistic about a return to normalcy. And three out of four consumers globally indicate that they plan to maintain or increase spending over the next six months.

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War in Ukraine Executive-Perspectives - Consumer Sentiment

Perspective on Future Scenarios

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created additional complexity and many unknowns for organizations navigating an already challenging global environment. Now, business leaders must cope with new supply shocks, deepening economic uncertainty, complex sanctions, and shifting geopolitics. The war’s duration, scope, and outcome are all unknown. To remain resilient in such a volatile environment, organizations should consider a range of scenarios on how the future could unfold. Here are four scenarios they can use to inform potential strategic actions. We call them “back to the future,” “tripolar competition,” “limited stalemate,” and “global escalation.”

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War in Ukraine Executive-Perspectives - Future Scenarios

Perspective on the Refugee Crisis

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing one of the largest humanitarian crises since World War II, triggering a mass mobilization of 5 million refugees. Neighboring European countries are straining to provide for this population. So far, companies have responded effectively to the immediate crisis. They must now move decisively to help civil society meet refugees’ longer-term needs, such as employment, financial assistance, health care, housing, schooling.

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War in Ukraine - Executive Perspectives: Perspective on the Refugee Crisis

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