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Land-Based Salmon Farming is at an Inflection Point

Conventional sea-based salmon farming (>99% of volume in 2024) faces growth constraints due to limited locations, strict regulations, and productivity challenges. Atlantic salmon supply growth is expected to remain low at 2-3% p.a. CAGR 2024-2030, while demand stays strong, with global consumption value projected to grow 7-9% p.a. (CAGR 2024-2030).

To meet this demand, farmers and new entrants are increasingly seeing land-based farming as a viable alternative to growth.

Strategic Context

Fundamentals Are in Place for Volume to Finally Ramp-Up

Opportunities Ahead

Long-Term Outlook is Strong and Will Be Led by Today’s Front-Runners

The global backlog of announced project capacity amounts to ~2.4 million tonnes WFE spread across 110 projects globally. However, only ~25% of these projects have started construction or completed a harvest as of 2024, with most likely never materializing due to hurdles associated with e.g. financing, competence or regulation.

Front-runners (companies already with fish stocked or constructed underway) are expected to deliver the majority of the ~190k tonnes WFE by 2030. These players have proven their operational stability, giving them a competitive edge in scaling production.

Five Strategic Focus Areas

We believe the industry players should focus on five focus areas in the upcoming years to increasingly attract interest and support from stakeholders: 

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