BCG-WEF Project: Climate and Health Sector Impact and Adaptation Opportunities

Workforce Heat Resilience: An Actionable Framework to Close the Execution Gap

Extreme heat is widely recognized as a major and growing risk to human health and economic stability. Today, more than 2.4 billion workers are exposed to excessive heat, resulting in at least 22 million injuries and 18,000 deaths annually. Without significant action to address workforce heat risk, rising temperatures could lead to productivity losses of $2.4 trillion by 2030, according to the International Labour Organization.

The risks are greatest for sectors characterized by outdoor and poorly ventilated indoor environments. In food and agriculture, companies report double-digit productivity declines during high-heat periods, according to a 2026 BCG survey. A logistics company in China observed more than a 20% increase in food delivery delays during heatwaves due to higher order volumes, location variability, and utilization of individual couriers, as described in a 2024 Harvard Business Review article. Similar pressures affect manufacturing, construction, mining, and operations involving sustained physical exertion or limited climate control.

These impacts cascade across value chains. Upstream, they increase volatility in supply quality, cost, and timelines; downstream, they shift demand patterns and create pressure for product and service performance.

Heat risk is not confined to the workplace or certain regions. Even in predominantly office-based industries, workers in regions such as Europe face sustained heat exposure during commutes and at home that disrupts sleep, impedes recovery, and compounds physical strain. Built environment studies show that construction workers often arrive at sites dehydrated, reducing labor capacity before the workday begins.

Despite growing awareness of these issues, action is lagging. Across all major geographies and sectors, around 50% of companies have not yet begun a systematic assessment of how extreme heat affects both workforces engaged in direct operations and those across their value chains, and only about 28% have piloted or scaled up interventions, according to the BCG survey.

The Value of a Proactive Approach

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health reports that initiatives such as work-rest cycles, shade, and hydration reduce heat-induced illness and absenteeism while stabilizing productivity. In Latin America, one food and agriculture company’s heat stress management program generated 60% return on investment, as noted in a 2025 report. For organizations taking action, non-financial gains—including stronger talent retention and pipelines, reduced legal exposure, and improved reputation—strengthen the business case.

A proactive approach allows companies to run low-cost pilots and scale up with confidence. Early movers lock in productivity gains and avoid compounding losses from repeated exposure while getting ahead of emerging regulations. Meanwhile, providers of heat resilience solutions, from parametric insurance to AI-enabled warning systems, benefit from new markets and growing demand.

A Framework for Leaders

To address workforce heat risk, business leaders must answer three critical questions:

• How big and where is my company’s problem with extreme heat?
• Which solutions should my company implement?
• How should my company approach execution?

Given the impact on individual workers and the rising cost of inaction, protecting workforces from extreme heat is both a risk management and strategic business imperative. Companies that close the execution gap protect their people—their most valuable asset—and position themselves for long-term success in a warming world.

Building Economic Resilience to the Health Impacts of Climate Change

The impact of climate change on health is already significant and will only increase. Estimates suggest that climate change, if unaddressed, could result in 14.5 million excess deaths by 2050. These deaths would be concentrated in the most disadvantaged regions and populations globally, areas where deaths from extreme weather events have been 15 times higher over the past decade.

Climate-health impacts also threaten business resilience. Less than 5% of global adaptation funding currently targets health protection—a dangerous gap that also presents an opportunity for private-sector action.

This report, a collaboration between the World Economic Forum and BCG, explores four highly exposed sectors to identify specific climate-health risks and opportunities.

• Food and Agriculture. By 2050, an estimated 24 million additional people will face hunger. And agricultural workers are expected to experience growing climate-health risks. This report estimates a likely mid-range scenario of $740 billion in worker availability losses from 2025 to 2050. Businesses that invest in resilient and precision agriculture practices and modified working practices will be best positioned to meet growing global needs for consistently available, healthy foods.
• Built Environment. Over half the world’s population lives in urban areas, and most buildings and infrastructure are poorly adapted for extreme heat and air pollution. Construction workers are particularly vulnerable; it’s projected that the industry will lose at least $570 billion owing to worker availability losses from 2025 to 2050. Climate-resilient design and retrofits have the potential to safeguard communities and yield economic benefits.
• Health and Health Care. The health and health care sector is expected to face an additional $1.1 trillion treatment burden owing to climate change by 2050, necessitating a focus on preventative care. There is tremendous opportunity for companies to lead this transformation by creating new climate-resilient medicines and robust care pathways and improving public health engagement.
• Insurance. Climate change is driving up claims in health, life, and casualty coverage, with Swiss Re forecasting 0.75% excess mortality annually by 2050. Meanwhile, only approximately 8% of people in low-income communities are covered by health insurance. Insurers can support and accelerate resilience by offering innovative products, improving forecasting capabilities, and incentivizing risk reduction.

While institutions in each sector can act, no sector can tackle the climate-health challenge alone. Success depends on enabling coordinated action through supportive policies, interoperable climate-health data systems, and innovative financing to mobilize capital. These foundations can help ensure long-term, scalable resilience.

The cost of inaction on climate-health risks is enormous. There are opportunities for businesses to adapt, build resilience, and forge a clear path forward to create economic and social value, differentiation, and sustainable growth.