India Economic Monitor

BCG’s India Economic Monitor shares insights on the state of Indian Economy from the most recent month, capturing 30+ key macroeconomic indicators and comparing them with trends observed in recent months. These indicators include industrial activity, trade, financial services, economic sentiments and sector-wise trends.

Brief Summary for Latest Report

Key highlights include:

• High-frequency indicators broadly signalled resilience in Apr’26, though external uncertainties weighed on select sectors. Industrial activity strengthened, supported by higher cement production in Mar’26, even as steel consumption moderated in Apr’26. Auto sales saw a cyclical post-year-end dip across most categories, while tractor sales edged up. Fuel demand also softened, with petrol and diesel consumption declining in Apr’26. Natural gas consumption fell sharply in Mar’26, driven by lower LNG imports amid rising stress from the West Asia crisis. On the logistics front, JNPA container traffic touched a record high in Apr’26, while e-way bill generation eased after March’s record volumes.
• Merchandise trade deficit widened further in Apr'26, as imports grew faster than exports, driven mainly by higher gold, petroleum & crude products, and electronic goods imports. Petroleum product exports improved, partly offsetting the pressure. Meanwhile, the services trade surplus rose only marginally, with exports growing faster than imports. Forex reserves increased in Apr’26, driven mainly by gold and a recovery in foreign currency assets. FDI inflows dipped in Mar’26, weighed down by lower RBI-route equity and other capital inflows, and higher repatriation.
• BFSI indicators showed mixed trends in Mar-Apr’26. Aggregate deposits and credit picked up in Mar’26, supported by year-end seasonality and comfortable system liquidity. UPI transaction volumes and values moderated in Apr’26 after elevated fiscal year-end activity in Mar’26. Mutual fund AUM rose sharply in Apr'26 to an all-time high, driven by strong debt and hybrid fund inflows, while insurance premiums declined sequentially as activity normalised after the year-end surge. NSE and BSE transactions rose sharply in Apr'26 while volatility index ended the month lower amid moderately improved investor sentiment.
• On the macro front, GST collections reached a record high in Apr’26, supported by higher import-linked revenues and seasonal year-end business activity. Inflation firmed, with WPI rising to a 42-month high of 8.3% and CPI increasing to 3.5% due to higher food and services costs. The rupee weakened in Apr’26, but India’s real effective exchange rate appreciated on a broader trade-partner basis. Labour market conditions improved in Apr'26, led by stronger rural and self-employment activity, while MGNREGA work demand and provision declined. Business sentiment strengthened, with both manufacturing and services PMI improving. Analysts project FY27 GDP growth in the range of 6.0–6.9%.