India Economic Monitor

BCG’s India Economic Monitor shares insights on the state of Indian Economy from the most recent month, capturing 30+ key macroeconomic indicators and comparing them with trends observed in recent months. These indicators include industrial activity, trade, financial services, economic sentiments and sector-wise trends.

Brief Summary for Latest Report

GDP & National Income Aggregates:

• In Jul-Sep’25, India’s real GDP grew 8.2% YoY, beating expectations and marking the fastest pace in six quarters.
• Services remained the principal growth engine, expanding 9.2% YoY, while industry strengthened to 7.7% YoY primarily on manufacturing- and construction-led gains; agriculture delivered a more moderate 3.5% YoY increase.
• On the demand side, private consumption was broadly flat versus Apr–Jun’25 but maintained a three-quarter-high YoY growth rate of 8.0%. Government consumption, by contrast, turned down cyclically, contracting 2.7% YoY amid subdued revenue spending, while gross capital formation rose 5.1% YoY, supported by higher public capex. Net exports continued to weigh on growth, with imports rising 12.8% YoY against 5.6% YoY growth in exports.

High Frequency Indicators:

• Among high-frequency indicators, IIP slipped marginally in Oct'25 as weaker electricity generation and manufacturing indices offset higher mining output. Cement production rose to a 4-month high in Oct'25, while steel consumption and daily power usage declined in Nov'25. E-way bill generation continued to rise in Nov'25, aided by GST rate cuts and resilient demand, while JNPA container traffic contracted. The auto sector softened in Nov'25, with all categories witnessing volume declines as post-festive demand normalized.
• In the trade segment, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a five-month low of $24.5 bn in Nov’25, led by a decline in imports of gold, crude oil, and petroleum products, while exports of engineering goods and electronics held up. The services trade surplus eased to $17.9 bn, as services exports fell faster than imports compared with Oct’25. Forex reserves edged down in Nov’25, driven by lower foreign-currency assets. FDI inflows also softened in Oct’25 as fresh equity inflows slowed, while repatriation/disinvestment picked up.
• BFSI indicators showed mixed trends in Oct-Nov'25. Aggregate deposits grew on stronger time-deposit mobilization, and aggregate credit rose as lending picked up in Oct'25. UPI transactions eased in Nov’25 as payments normalized after the festive period, even as mutual fund AUM continued to rise on steady inflows across fund categories. Overall insurance premiums fell in both life and non-life categories in Nov ’25, led by weaker group single-premium life inflows. NSE and BSE transactions also dipped in Nov'25 amid foreign portfolio outflows, while India VIX stayed subdued - signaling expectations of contained volatility.
• On the macro side, WPI inflation remained in negative territory at -0.3% in Nov’25, with deflation in primary articles and fuel & power partly offset by modest gains in manufactured products. CPI inflation edged up to 0.7% as food, fuel and the miscellaneous category firmed slightly from Oct’25 lows. Manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low on slower sales and softer output, while services PMI rebounded on stronger new business and export orders. GST collections eased to ₹1.75 tn in Nov ’25 as inflows normalized from the October festive high and recent GST rationalization. FY26 GDP growth is now projected at 6.3–7.4% following upward revisions by analysts.