Corporate Finance and Strategy
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By Jeff Kotzen, Hady Farag, Julien Ghesquieres, Gregory Rice, Dan Riff, Callan Sainsbury, and Rachna Sachdev
As we navigate an uncertain world, how do investors view the US economy and stock market? And what do they expect from business leaders?
The BCG Investor Perspectives Series is intended to bring the voice of the investor to business leaders and board members. While we feature the most recent research here, you can explore earlier editions below.
Our most recent survey, conducted October 10–13, 2023, finds that few investors (38%) are bullish for 2024, down from 51% in June 2023. While more investors (65%) are bullish for the next three years, they are expecting the S&P 500 to return only 6% over that time frame, a new low across the 24 investor pulse checks to date. Interest rates remain investors’ number one concern, and their perceived geopolitical risk, public sector debt and spending risk, and private sector credit and default risk are also up substantially. As a result, a significant percentage of investors—73%—have actively reduced their exposure to companies with higher leverage. At the same time, they remain surprisingly open to well-grounded, clearly articulated growth and M&A agendas, with 73% of investors willing to support highly attractive acquisitions that temporarily increase leverage. More broadly, investors want companies to deliver the best of both worlds in terms of meeting short-term earnings guidance or consensus and investing in long-term growth opportunities.
The respondents represent investment firms with more than $5 trillion in combined assets under management. They cover a broad spectrum of investing types and styles, and about 91% are portfolio managers and senior analysts directly responsible for making buy, sell, and hold decisions. The series began in March 2020 as the COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check. This is the 24th edition in the series.
BCG Investor Perspectives Series: Q2 2023 | June 5–8, 2023
Investors remain bearish, with 78% expecting inflation to remain elevated through the end of 2023. Investors are also increasingly conservative about capital allocation, especially for M&A and share buybacks.
BCG Investor Perspectives Series: Q1 2023 | February 13-22, 2023
Investors are less bearish than they were in Q4 2022, but they remain concerned about elevated inflation and a potential recession in 2023. At the same time, optimism for the next three years is at a series high—73% of investors are bullish, compared with the series average of 61%.
BCG Investor Perspectives Series: Pulse Check #21 | October 7-11, 2022
Only 5% of investors are bullish for 2022, and many think a US recession is around the corner. The number one macro concern for 87% of investors is inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy.
BCG Investor Perspectives Series: Pulse Check #20 | June 17-21, 2022
Investors are the most pessimistic they have been since the Global Financial Crisis. However, the majority of investors are bullish for the next three years, which is reflected in an average annual TSR of 8.5%.
BCG Investor Perspectives Series: Pulse Check #19 | March 18-22, 2022
Investors are more bearish on the economy, with 65% expecting a recession in 2022 or 2023. The importance of geopolitical risks has grown, and many—71%—want companies to disclose their exposure to Russia.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #18 | January 28-31, 2022
Investors are more bearish on the economy and the stock market—especially for 2022. And while they see a company’s long-term growth outlook as the primary investment criterion, a series high of 86% expect companies to deliver on guidance.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #17 | October 29-31, 2021
Investor concern about the business impact of the pandemic is waning—with 55%, down from 63% in June, seeing it as an important investment consideration. But investor concerns over inflation, interest rates, and macroeconomic growth are on the rise—and investors increasingly expect management to deliver on forecasts.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #16 | June 19-20, 2021
While investors are more bullish on the US economy, they are less optimistic on the stock market, with 39%—down from 50% in April—bullish for the rest of 2021. And 63% continue to view COVID-19 as an important consideration in their investment decisions.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #15 | April 29-30, 2021
Investor expectations may be starting to return to prepandemic norms. While 88% of investors (down from a series high of 95% in February) want management to invest in building advantage even at the expense of EPS, a series high of 79% expect management to deliver EPS that at least meets guidance or consensus.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #14 | February 6-7, 2021
A majority of investors expect the pandemic’s economic impact will extend through Q4 2021. And 95% of investors believe companies should build capabilities now, even at the expense of short-term results.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #13 | December 12-13, 2020
Most investors still offer management unprecedented flexibility to invest for long-term advantage. But they also expect management to deliver EPS that at least matches revised guidance.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #12 | November 13-14, 2020
Investors are more bullish on the US economy and stock market than they were just one month ago. And while investors continue to offer management exceptional latitude, more expect companies to maintain their dividend.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #11 | October 16-17, 2020
Investors are more bearish on the duration of the pandemic and the outlook for 2021. In addition, 74% think management teams should move quickly to revise plans after the US election.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #10 | September 18-19, 2020
A majority of investors expect the S&P 500 to return to earnings growth by the end of Q2 2021. And 70% support reinstating dividends at some level for COVID-resilient companies by the end of Q1 2021.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #9 | August 7-9, 2020
A majority of investors expect either a W-shaped or U-shaped recovery. And 71% believe management should actively pursue acquisitions to strengthen the business, preferably using tuck-in deals.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #8 | July 17-19, 2020
Investors expect the pandemic’s impact on the US economy to last longer—through Q2 2021. In addition, only 11% of investors think management is seizing the moment to build advantage.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #7 | June 26-28, 2020
Investors are more pessimistic on the timing and shape of the recovery. This edition also includes investor perspectives on management incentives in the current environment.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #6 | June 5-7, 2020
Investors are more bullish than they were in April—and still willing to offer management significant flexibility to invest for the long term. They also want discretionary investment focused on financial health and future growth.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #5 | May 15-17, 2020
Investors are less bullish on the market than they were one month ago, and they want honest and transparent communications from management.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #4 | May 1-3, 2020
Investors expect the pandemic’s impact on the US economy to continue through the end of 2020, and less than half of them are bullish for the market in 2021.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #3 | April 17-19, 2020
Investors are increasingly negative on the economy in 2020 and on the stock market in 2021. See the results from the investor survey conducted April 17–19.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #2 | April 3-5, 2020
Investors are bearish now, but they are increasingly bullish for 2021 and 2022—and willing to offer executives unexpected flexibility to navigate the crisis.
COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #1 | March 20-22, 2020
BCG’s ongoing survey provides insights on the US market and economy direct from the portfolio managers and senior analysts making buy, sell, and hold decisions right now.
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