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BCG Investor Perspectives Series

As we navigate an uncertain world, what do investors expect from the US economy, the US stock market, and business leaders?

October 28, 2022

The BCG Investor Perspectives Series is intended to bring the voice of the investor to business leaders and board members. While we feature the most recent research here, you can explore earlier editions below.

Our most recent survey, conducted October 7–11, 2022, finds that only 13% of investors are bullish on the economy—a new series low. The number one macro concern for 87% of investors is inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy. And many think a US recession is around the corner. Eighty-five percent believe a recession will start before or during the first half of 2023, including 40% that think the US is already in one. More than ever across the past 20 surveys, investors want leaders to deliver on guidance, and a significant percentage continue to support leaders exiting or divesting lines of business to strengthen their company.

The respondents represent investment firms with more than $5 trillion in combined assets under management. They cover a broad spectrum of investing types and styles, and about 85% are portfolio managers and senior analysts directly responsible for making buy, sell, and hold decisions. The series began in March 2020 as the COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check.

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June 17–21, 2022

BCG Investor Perspectives Series: Pulse Check #20

Investors are the most pessimistic they have been since the Global Financial Crisis. However, the majority of investors are bullish for the next three years, which is reflected in an average annual TSR of 8.5%.

March 18–22, 2022

BCG Investor Perspectives Series: Pulse Check #19

Investors are more bearish on the economy, with 65% expecting a recession in 2022 or 2023. The importance of geopolitical risks has grown, and many—71%—want companies to disclose their exposure to Russia.

January 28–31, 2022

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #18

Investors are more bearish on the economy and the stock market—especially for 2022. And while they see a company’s long-term growth outlook as the primary investment criterion, a series high of 86% expect companies to deliver on guidance.

October 29–31, 2021

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #17

Investor concern about the business impact of the pandemic is waning—with 55%, down from 63% in June, seeing it as an important investment consideration. But investor concerns over inflation, interest rates, and macroeconomic growth are on the rise—and investors increasingly expect management to deliver on forecasts.

June 19–20, 2021

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #16

While investors are more bullish on the US economy, they are less optimistic on the stock market, with 39%—down from 50% in April—bullish for the rest of 2021. And 63% continue to view COVID-19 as an important consideration in their investment decisions.

April 29–30, 2021

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #15

Investor expectations may be starting to return to prepandemic norms. While 88% of investors (down from a series high of 95% in February) want management to invest in building advantage even at the expense of EPS, a series high of 79% expect management to deliver EPS that at least meets guidance or consensus.

February 6–7, 2021

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #14

A majority of investors expect the pandemic’s economic impact will extend through Q4 2021. And 95% of investors believe companies should build capabilities now, even at the expense of short-term results.

DECEMBER 12–13, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #13

Most investors still offer management unprecedented flexibility to invest for long-term advantage. But they also expect management to deliver EPS that at least matches revised guidance.

NOVEMBER 13–14, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #12

Investors are more bullish on the US economy and stock market than they were just one month ago. And while investors continue to offer management exceptional latitude, more expect companies to maintain their dividend.

October 16–17, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #11

Investors are more bearish on the duration of the pandemic and the outlook for 2021. In addition, 74% think management teams should move quickly to revise plans after the US election.

September 18–19, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #10

A majority of investors expect the S&P 500 to return to earnings growth by the end of Q2 2021. And 70% support reinstating dividends at some level for COVID-resilient companies by the end of Q1 2021.

August 7–9, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #9

A majority of investors expect either a W-shaped or U-shaped recovery. And 71% believe management should actively pursue acquisitions to strengthen the business, preferably using tuck-in deals.

July 17–19, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #8

Investors expect the pandemic’s impact on the US economy to last longer—through Q2 2021. In addition, only 11% of investors think management is seizing the moment to build advantage.

JUNE 26–28, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #7

Investors are more pessimistic on the timing and shape of the recovery. This edition also includes investor perspectives on management incentives in the current environment.

JUNE 5–7, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #6

Investors are more bullish than they were in April—and still willing to offer management significant flexibility to invest for the long term. They also want discretionary investment focused on financial health and future growth.

MAY 15–17, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #5

Investors are less bullish on the market than they were one month ago, and they want honest and transparent communications from management.

MAY 1–3, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #4

Investors expect the pandemic’s impact on the US economy to continue through the end of 2020, and less than half of them are bullish for the market in 2021.

APRIL 17–19, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #3

Investors are increasingly negative on the economy in 2020 and on the stock market in 2021. See the results from the investor survey conducted April 17–19.

APRIL 3–5, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #2

Investors are bearish now, but they are increasingly bullish for 2021 and 2022—and willing to offer executives unexpected flexibility to navigate the crisis.

MARCH 20–22, 2020

COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check #1

BCG’s ongoing survey provides insights on the US market and economy direct from the portfolio managers and senior analysts making buy, sell, and hold decisions right now.

Authors

Jeff Kotzen

Managing Director & Senior Partner

New Jersey

Hady Farag

Partner & Associate Director

New York

Tim Nolan

Managing Director & Senior Partner

New York

Julien Ghesquieres

Managing Director & Senior Partner

New York

Gregory Rice

Partner & Director

New York

Callan Sainsbury

Principal

New York

Rachna Sachdev

Project Leader

Toronto

BCG Investor Perspectives Series

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