Executive summary
The world is entering a new era of global trade, with the Global South rising as a major engine of growth. South–South trade is projected to grow by 3.8% annually, and regional GDP is set to outpace advanced economies, expanding at 4.2% per year to 2029. Asia, Latin America, and parts of the Middle East are redrawing trade and investment maps.
Africa sits at the center of this transformation, but risks being left behind. Today, the continent accounts for only ~3% of global trade and 4% of global FDI. Its largest trade corridor with China is growing fast but remains heavily tilted toward importing manufactured goods and exporting unprocessed commodities. Africa must act now to shift from trade participant to trade shaper.
To understand how business leaders view this moment, BCG conducted a survey with over 350 senior African executives in partnership with the Africa CEO Forum. Their message is clear: volatility is rising, but so is readiness to respond.
This report explores how Africa can navigate disruption, unlock competitiveness and lead in the next era of global trade.
Short-term disruptions: Navigating the headwinds
Africa faces an increasingly complex near-term trade environment, shaped by rising tariffs, shifting global alliances, and uncertain trade preferences. While the aggregate tariff impact appears modest (around 1% incremental cost of Africa’s total exports) the distribution is far from even and could be further threatened with uncertainty around the renewal of AGOA.
Beyond direct costs, the real concern lies in second-order effects. Trade wars and tariff reconfigurations risk triggering supply chain rerouting, import surges, and demand declines for African commodities used in intermediary manufacturing.
Beyond tariffs, the continent’s resources are being strained by broader macro shocks. An estimated 50 to70 billion dollars in global Official Development Assistance is now considered at risk, while sovereign debt pressures continue to intensify due to higher borrowing costs and weaker long term issuer ratings.
These forces are already being felt across the business landscape. More than four in five executives surveyed indicate that geopolitical tensions are having a direct negative impact on their countries’ economic outlook.
Africa Unleashed
Long-term trade: A platform for growth
Despite the near term volatility, Africa’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. A young and expanding workforce, abundant natural resources, and a growing consumer market position the continent as a potential global growth pole. Yet trade patterns continue to reinforce structural imbalances.
Shifts in global trade corridors underscore both the urgency and the opportunity. Africa’s largest trade corridor with China is projected to expand significantly over the next decade, yet remains heavily import driven. Without a strategic shift toward higher value production and export competitiveness, the continent risks remaining primarily a consumption market.
Opportunities for Governments and Institutions: Competing through focus and fit
African governments face a pivotal moment to sharpen trade positioning. Two levels of action are critical.
Continental priorities: Opportunities include reducing trade frictions to accelerate intra Africa flows, strengthening regional value chains, and addressing the infrastructure gap that continues to limit competitiveness.
National plays: At the national level, countries must focus on areas where they have clear comparative advantages. Opportunities include developing nearshoring gateways linked to global and regional supply chains, strengthening the role of regional anchor economies, expanding resource beneficiation to capture greater value from critical minerals, and accelerating growth in agri export economies.
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Opportunities for African Businesses: A trade-focused playbook for competitiveness
African companies have a critical role in shaping the continent’s trajectory. Businesses must invest in capabilities that allow them to navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
Build geopolitical muscle to monitor risks and seize the advantage: Companies need the ability to track tariff changes, regulatory shifts, and emerging trade incentives, and to embed scenario planning into strategic decision making.
Invest in “trade conscious” value propositions: Align with global trade dynamics, including critical minerals and green value chains, agro processing, regional manufacturing platforms, and sustainability aligned exports that respond to evolving global standards.
Partner to mobilize resources and shape the trade environment: Companies can help shape the enabling environment. Engaging in public private platforms, coinvesting with development finance institutions, and advocating for the reduction of non-tariff barriers are important levers to build more competitive trade ecosystems.
90% of African Executive shave engaged more actively inbuilding trade competitiveness through scenario planning, seeking new investors and increasing cyber defense to face current context.
A Moment to Lead
Africa is not waiting, but nor can it afford to, as other regions in the Global South are adapting and responding to geopolitical shifts. In a world of shifting power and opportunity, the continent must lead with vision and urgency to seize the opportunity now or risk being left behind. The next wave of African growth will be led by those who can align strategy with shifting global realities, at both the boardroom and Cabinet tables.
