Shoppers who plan to take advantage of year-end sales events in 2026 are no longer simply demanding discounts; they are also demanding proof that the discounts are real. And with GenAI, they have a tool to get it. As Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Singles’ Day approach, that makes trust and credibility the test every retailer needs to pass.
Last year’s survey tracked year-end sales events as they evolved from one-day frenzies into global smart-spending rituals, with awareness and intent climbing as in prior years.
This year, our sixth annual Year-End Sales Events Consumer Study found that, even as awareness and intent remain high, consumers are no longer just searching for the lowest prices; they are also questioning the discounts themselves, wondering if the prices they see are genuinely a good deal. (See “Survey Methodology.”)
Survey Methodology
Questions covered sentiment and expectations ahead of three year-end sales events: Singles’ Day on November 11, Black Friday on November 27, and Cyber Monday on November 30. Local data is available on request.
This finding changes how retailers must compete. Deep discounts are becoming a commodity; credibility is not. Our study points to three developments that will shape the 2026 season:
- Year-end sales events remain firmly on shoppers’ calendars, but relevance is plateauing. Black Friday awareness is near-saturation, at 95%, and shopping intent among those aware of the event has grown just two percentage points, to 81%. Meanwhile, shopping plans look largely settled, in line with last year.
- A trust deficit has become the central constraint, which verifiable proof can overcome. While only 54% of respondents trust advertised prices at year-end sales events, retailer reputation and money-back guarantees are shown to build trust in a deal, whereas persuasion cues such as influencer recommendations add little.
- GenAI adoption keeps climbing, while social media is weakening as inspiration. More than half of consumers (56%) will use GenAI this year, up eight percentage points. It is clearly becoming shoppers’ tool of choice for finding and comparing products and offers. Meanwhile, social media as a shopping inspiration has declined across markets, even as GenAI as inspiration has grown in every market.
Relevance of Year-End Sales Events Is Plateauing
Year-end sales events still shape how shoppers plan their year, given that Black Friday is well known to consumers across our ten markets and that the great majority of those who are aware intend to shop. Many delay purchases earlier in the year to wait for the events. In fact, 76% of those planning to shop say they hold back at least sometimes (unchanged versus 2025), with regional responses varying from 65% in the Czech Republic to 82% in Australia.
Yet growth is clearly starting to plateau, and the day itself is carrying less of the load. With Black Friday awareness near saturation, shopping intent grew at only half of last year’s pace (up four percentage points in 2025). At the same time, shoppers are spreading their attention across the run-up: 62% begin their deal search in October or at the beginning of November (up two percentage points), while only about a third wait until the days just before the event or until the day itself.
Shopping plans have also barely moved: gifting remains the main reason to shop (63%, down one percentage point); essentials still take the largest share of budgets; and clothing, electronics, and beauty remain the top three categories. Retailers can no longer count on the calendar to deliver growth alone. The deal itself must now earn it, starting with trust.
When Shoppers Doubt the Discount, Proof Beats Persuasion
Our study finds that trust in promotional pricing is fragile and highly uneven. Globally, while about half of consumers trust advertised prices at year-end sales events at least somewhat, roughly one in five actively distrusts them. And the gap between markets is wide: roughly two-thirds of US consumers trust advertised prices, but only about a third in key European markets such as Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Germany do. (See Exhibit 1.)
Promotion fatigue compounds the problem. Among shoppers planning to spend less or skip year-end events, 22% believe deals are available all the time anyway, up two percentage points over 2025. At the same time, the minimum discount shoppers expect from a good deal has eased slightly, down two percentage points to about 30%. Taken together, it seems the size of a markdown matters less than whether shoppers believe it.
What does earn trust is credibility and proof. When asked what makes a deal feel worth buying, respondents answered consistently across all ten markets: they trust the deal if they trust the retailer or there is verifiable peer-to-peer proof. Measured as a net trust score (the share of consumers who say a factor increases their trust in a deal less the share who say it decreases it), the retailer’s reputation and a money-back or free-returns policy each achieved 65%; followed by verified purchase reviews (59%); a clear comparison of regular and discounted prices (58%); and a high star rating, a high number of reviews, and real customer photos (56% to 58%). (See Exhibit 2.)
The bottom of the ranking is equally instructive. Real-time scarcity messages scored 8%, AI-generated review summaries 4%, and influencer recommendations 3%, barely building net trust. The tactics that dominated promotional calendars for a decade are clearly no longer sufficient.
BCG’s Center for Customer Insight 2026 survey found the same pattern well beyond year-end sales events: as information overload erodes blanket trust, consumers concentrate their remaining trust in fewer, verifiable sources—and AI is now the fastest-growing.
GenAI Becomes Shoppers’ Companion as Social Media Loses Ground
After a surge in 2025 across all countries, GenAI use is set to climb even further this year: more than half of shoppers (56%, up eight percentage points) expect to adopt it, with Gen Z leading at 66%, followed by millennials (62%), Gen X (52%), and baby boomers (35%). Around 86% of respondents report that it is useful, 83% say it helps them find better deals, and 78% say it raises their likelihood of completing a purchase.
GenAI’s growing role also shows up in how shoppers discover products: social media as an inspiration source fell nine percentage points to 46% and declined in every market, while GenAI use grew in every market (up four percentage points to 11%). This shift tracks trust: influencers carry less weight in building trust, while AI is starting to prove itself to be a credible companion.
For shoppers who doubt that they are getting a deal, GenAI also offers a way to check it on the spot. As consumers increasingly employ GenAI, their trust runs highest for comparing prices across retailers (39%) and comparing product features (37%). In contrast, transactional tasks, such as filling in checkout details, are still developing as a common use case. (See Exhibit 3.)
What leads consumers to trust an AI shopping assistant’s recommendation tends to mirror what earns trust for a discount: product comparison across retailers (35%), the ability to verify the information independently (33%), and visible price history (31%); all of these outrank the assistant’s track record (21%).
What Retailers Can Do
- Win the run-up. With almost two-thirds of shoppers searching for deals by early November, retailers need to front-load campaigns and trust-building into October and early November, as many are already doing with multiday sales and deal weeks. Whether shoppers are starting earlier on their own or because retailers got there first is hard to tell, but each early move pulls the others with it. It is a trend that merits a closer look over the coming years: if this pull forward continues, at what point does “Black Friday” stop describing a specific day and start describing a season that swallows its own name?
- Use loyalty and personalization to cut through promotion fatigue. When consumers assume another deal is always coming, early access, personalized offers, and tiered rewards give existing customers a reason to act immediately and keep coming back. And with trust in advertised discounts so fragile, the relationship a retailer builds between seasons will determine whose offer is deemed most credible.
- Add AI-mediated discovery to the marketing mix. Influencer recommendations add little to trust in a deal, and social media is losing ground when it comes to shopping inspiration; meanwhile, GenAI is gaining ground as the event-shopper’s companion. In response, retailers can rebalance part of their marketing expenditure toward where shoppers now increasingly discover products: in structuring product attributes, pricing, and promotions so AI can find them; auditing how AI compares their brand with competitors; and agreeing platform terms now, before pay-to-play becomes the norm. Verified reviews build shopper trust and give AI evidence for its recommendations, so retailers should request one after every purchase.
- Invest in transparency to convert shoppers, not just bigger discounts. Retailers can publish transparent price histories and was/is comparisons and apply consistent discount logic across channels. They can lead with trust, retailer reputation, and money-back or free-return guarantees rather than overly large discounts or artificial scarcity cues. Together, these measures give doubtful shoppers the proof they need to buy.
Year-end sales events remain a must-win retail moment. But the winners in 2026 will not be the retailers with the boldest percentage on the banner. They will be the ones whose customers trust their reputation and the discounts they offer.
The authors acknowledge BCG’s Center for Customer Insight, especially Mario Farsk and Aparna Rawlley, for the support in conducting the survey.
