Where to Profit as Tech Transforms Mobility
The auto industry shouldn’t be lulled by steady growth. Electric and autonomous cars and ride-sharing will dramatically shift incumbents’ profit pools and empower new competitors.
BCG has been working with the World Economic Forum and an extensive network of partners since 2013 to shape the future of urban mobility and make autonomous vehicles a reality.
BCG’s Center for Mobility Innovation brings together our urban mobility experts and digital business builders to create innovative and state-of-the-art mobility solutions and tackle the opportunities and challenges posed by the future of mobility.
Learn about shaping the future of mobilityTo explore a shared vision for the City of the Future—including autonomous vehicles—the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group, has partnered with the City of Boston. BCG's advanced analytics group GAMMA has developed a citywide AV impact study on traffic in Boston and the potential impact of different policy levers. This 2018 video expands on the traffic simulation of early 2017.
Watch the latest videoThe World Economic Forum, in collaboration with BCG, has partnered with the City of Boston to make autonomous vehicles a reality. The first autonomous mile was completed in January 2017.
Watch the latest videoThe emergence of three trends—vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, and share mobility—will profoundly change the sources of profitability in the automotive industry over the next 10 to 15 years. By 2035, new mobility technology could drive 40% of industry profits, based on BCG’s ‘most likely’ scenario. The trends would shift profits from incumbents to field in which tech challengers might have an edge.
The auto industry shouldn’t be lulled by steady growth. Electric and autonomous cars and ride-sharing will dramatically shift incumbents’ profit pools and empower new competitors.
By 2030, SAEV fleets will account for nearly 25% of all auto passenger miles traveled in the US, and a substantial share of urban dwellers will turn to SAEVs--allowing people to reclaim lost time and end the expense and hassle of urban automobile ownership. Traffic accidents and fatalities will be reduced by nearly two-thirds. Pollution will be drastically curtailed. Cities will be able to repurpose millions of square feet of parking spaces, while securing mobility and accessibility for elderly, disabled, and low-income individuals.
The tipping point for electrified vehicles is in sight: a combination of hybrid and fully electric powertrains is expected to cut the global market share of pure internal combustion engines (ICEs) by nearly 50% by 2030. ICEs will continue to play a major but changing role in the industry, as most electrified vehicles over time will be hybrids, according to new research by BCG.
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