This article was first published in Harvard Business Review and is available via subscription.
President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs is a complex and fluid policy shock. BCG’s Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Paul Swartz, and Martin Reeves write that there will be primary effects that are difficult to estimate as well as knock-on outcomes that may come to matter even more. Moreover, the tariffs may be the opening gambit for fragmented negotiations. Thus, this 360° trade war prevents drawing any quick or precise conclusions. Leaders straining to see its impacts should build institutional analytical capabilities to monitor policy gyrations and translate insights into corporate preparedness—not only readying a tactical response but also addressing the strategic consequences.