Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. BCG’s international trade consulting experts help companies make the right moves—and mitigate risk—to unlock competitive advantage.
何十年にもわたり、企業は次のような一連の基本的前提に基づいてグローバル戦略を構築してきました。国際貿易と投資はさらに自由化され、世界のGDP成長を促進し続け、多国間の規則と制度により統治される。企業はコスト面の優位性を確保するために、低コスト国で製造し材料を調達するとともに事実上どの国の市場でも販売できるよう、大規模な海外展開をすべきだ、というものです。
しかし、全世界で見られる地政学的変化、創造的破壊をもたらすテクノロジー、コスト構造の変化が、国際的ビジネスの前提を覆しつつあります。急速な変化を続け、複雑性が高まる国際貿易環境には、大きなリスクが伴います。しかし同時に、そこでの舵取りのしかたを知り、アジャイル（俊敏）に適応できる企業にとっては、厖大な機会が生まれつつあります。
企業や政府は「様子見のアプローチ」では競争で優位なポジションを占めることはできないでしょう。私たちは、国際貿易の環境が変化するなかで、クライアントがリスクを緩和し競争優位性を手に入れるための明確な積極的施策を特定し実行するお手伝いをします。
常に先を進むには、国際貿易を変容させているメガトレンドを理解することが重要です。以下の変化は、単に業界紙の見出しを賑わせているだけでなく、実際の企業経営に非常に大きな影響を与えています。
Economic nationalism is rising. Anti-globalization movements on both the left and right of the political spectrum have fueled Brexit, trade wars, and renegotiation or withdrawal of multilateral agreements such as NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
State capitalism is expanding. The global footprint of state-owned enterprises, especially from China, is growing, even though they remain protected in their home markets.
Supply chains are becoming more local. Decreasing “labor arbitrage” driven by automation and increasingly flexible Industry 4.0 advanced manufacturing systems are making it more economical and practical to produce goods closer to customers, while diminishing the need for long-distance global supply chains.
The digital economy is supplanting the physical economy. While growth in cross-border merchandise trade slows, international, trade in services and value-added solutions via digital platforms is expanding.
One medical equipment maker was relieved at first when South Korea had negotiated an exemption from 25% US tariffs on steel; it was using specialty Korean steel in one of its devices. That all changed when significant supply-chain disruption set in and the firm realized that its supplier did not receive a quota allocation, and that it could not import this essential component at any price until the next quota allocation was granted three months later.
Also, a prominent Turkish white goods player was able to seize a significant market opportunity in the US when a large Chinese player was hit with US Tariffs on China.
Some may still argue that these examples are the results of specific political leaders in specific countries, and that once those leaders are gone, these sorts of problems will disappear. However, while the current political tensions around trade in many parts of the world may evolve, the four megatrends mentioned above will ensure that the international trading system will not return to the broad trend of trade liberalization and economic globalization that the world saw in the 1990s and 2000s.
BCG’s Nikolaus Lang describes three overarching shifts in global trade—what’s driving them and what their impact will be—as we look ahead to a complex 2023.
Read the report
Global trade will increasingly shape and be shaped by the push to slash global emissions—with major economic implications, particularly for countries struggling to decarbonize.
Trade disruptions have prompted many global companies to shift where they produce and source goods. But getting the desired results requires a difficult balancing act.
Global trade has been transformed by Brexit, geopolitical tensions, the pandemic, and other shocks. Here’s how North American companies are adapting.
A wave of new rules is making it a riskier world for corporate technology pipelines. Understanding—and planning for—the challenges will be crucial.
Associate Director
Boston
