The Amazon and Pará: ecological and strategic frontiers
The Amazon stands as one of the world’s most critical ecological and geopolitical frontiers – being vital to global climate stability. It encompasses almost 60% of national territory, supports a population of roughly 30 million and its precipitation is linked to roughly 70% of South America’s GDP. Within this expanse, Pará emerges as a strategic focal point. It concentrates roughly 30% of the national part of the biome, has demonstrated sustained economic growth, and plays a leading role in forest conservation. This study begins in Pará – as a gateway to unlocking scalable, sustainable solutions for the Amazon as a whole.
However, threats require urgent response. The state’s natural and cultural wealth faces mounting risks due to land use complexity and climate change. About 20% of its area – roughly 24 million hectares – has already been cleared, and conversion jumped 69% in the last five years. This surge threatens hundreds of native species while amplifying risks for farmers and local communities. In response, the region must scale the adoption of regenerative practices across its landscapes.
In a context where the climate emergency intersects with mounting geopolitical and socioeconomic challenges, COP30 in Belém, the capital of Pará, marks a critical juncture for the private sector to act decisively. It is a moment to advance an agricultural model that aligns productivity with the preservation of the biome. There is clear momentum and potential to scale regenerative agriculture aligned with a bioeconomy vision.
Analysis identifies 8.8 million hectares where regenerative actions are feasible, notably restoring degraded pastures and deploying agroforestry systems such as cocoa and integrated crop-livestock-forestry (ICLF) for smallholders. Up to 6.8 million hectares of pastureland are economically viable for reform or improvement, offering returns of 12-16% and payback periods of 8-11 years. An additional 0.6 million hectares show viable returns under agroforestry cocoa systems, with 15-22% returns, recouped in 7-9 years. BCG’s research, based on insights from over 100 producers from Pará, points to willingness to adopt diversified and sustainable land use.
With targeted action, Pará could become a global model for regenerative landscapes and socio biodiversity. By stopping further land conversion and preserving up to 16 million hectares, the state could boost cattle output 1.7 times and cocoa production 5.6 times. This transition could raise incomes for over 80,000 smallholder farms and 500+ settlement zones. The investment opportunity is estimated at USD 21 billion by 2040, with nominal internal rates of return (IRR) averaging 19%, spanning market ventures and carbon sequestration of up to 34 MtCO₂e.
A viable, scalable path is emerging, anchored in joint efforts between state and private sectors. LAB's ambition is to raise USD 2 billion in initial investment until 2030 to accelerate the transition. Private capital could fund up to 85% of the agenda, supported by de-risking tools. Ongoing pilots, including a large-scale landscape program, use strong monitoring protocols, financial tools, and trusted farmer relationships. These initiatives aim to unlock major opportunities and advance Pará’s transition.