Global Mobility Has Slowed, but the Race for AI Talent Has Not

When it comes to international talent mobility, eyes are on the US, where the second Trump administration has driven tighter and more selective immigration policy. Still, BCG’s latest review (through the end of 2025) shows that the US gained share in three of four categories—adding 4.0 percentage points in highly skilled talent, 2.6 in STEM talent, and 1.2 in research talent. AI talent is the exception: it's the one talent category where the US ceded ground, signaling a more contested race for AI talent globally. (See “About Our Research.” There, we also explain the addition of a new category of highly skilled talent to the groups that we track: research talent.)

Broadening the view, our research revealed a sharp drop in international talent mobility overall. In our last edition, we highlighted the first decline in mobility since 2020: In our data through August 2025, international movement among highly skilled individuals dropped by 8.5% relative to the prior year. That means that about 220,000 fewer highly skilled individuals relocated internationally with the intent to work in their new country long term or permanently. This drop followed a trend that was already in motion in our prior review, when mobility continued to grow but slowed by 0.4% from 2023 to 2024.

That trend has gained momentum. Following a methodology refresh that expanded our tracked population to 221 million, our latest review shows the slowdown deepened in 2025. Cross-border moves by highly skilled professionals fell from 3.7 million in 2024 to 3.3 million last year—a drop of 11.6%. That translates into roughly 430,000 fewer movers than in 2024. The drop was sharper for specialist talent: STEM at –13%, AI at –12%, and research at –19%.

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Key Developments by Country

As noted, despite the overall slowdown, the US has held and even expanded its lead in most categories, attracting the highest numbers of internationally mobile professionals. This suggests that pull factors (compensation, opportunity, ecosystem depth) still outweigh policy headwinds for highly skilled workers.

Other attractive targets for talent on the move are the UAE, which drew nearly 194,000 highly skilled workers, thus adding 0.8 points of market share, and Saudi Arabia, which recorded the highest retention ratio (2.6x) of any major destination. Hong Kong, Sweden, and Japan posted high gains in talent inflows as well.

India ranks among the top-three destinations for STEM and AI talent in this edition. However, the largest source countries for these inflows are the US, UK, UAE, and Canada — suggesting this is largely nonresident Indians (NRIs) returning home rather than broad-based attraction of new foreign talent.

Canada, the UK, and European countries experienced the sharpest drops in talent inflows. In highly skilled talent, Canada dropped from a top-three target to seventh place. The UK, despite drops in all categories, still has top-three standing in the highly skilled, AI, and research categories. However, the UAE is quickly gaining on the UK in highly skilled and AI. Elsewhere in Europe, Spain and France posted gains in all categories. Germany gained as a target of research talent, landing in third place.

Considerations for Leaders

Private-sector leaders should ask if talent and talent development are truly top priorities for their organization. Consider whether they lack the right talent (for example, in digital or GenAI), and the consequent financial impact. Determine the areas in which they are unable to upskill current employees. Evaluate the employee value proposition—what promise can we make to highly skilled workers?

Public-sector leaders of top talent destination countries and cities should explore whether they have a fit-for-purpose immigration system for highly skilled workers and how they can build state- and city-level innovation hubs to attract talent. Consider how they can use talent funds to incentivize companies to attract and retain talent?.

Public-sector leaders of top talent origin countries should ask how they can upskill our workforces to find meaningful work at home and abroad. Explore whether they have a clear talent brand to attract and reattract talent, and how they can enhance their capacity to retain the best talent.

The most consequential finding may be the one the data only hints at: the US is no longer extending its lead in AI talent. Whether that proves a temporary leveling or the start of a structural shift may become one of the defining questions of the next decade of the global technology race.