BCG Executive Perspectives: War in Ukraine

Global Update and Perspective on Reconstruction

As we enter the second year of war, it is impossible not to reflect on the enormous loss and suffering it has wrought. The top priority for all continues to be the safety and security of people. The scale and duration of the war has had a profound economic impact, both within Ukraine and globally. The one-year mark provides an occasion to reflect on the growing extent of physical and economic damage to Ukraine and the scale of rebuilding required.

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Perspective on Global Trade

BCG’s Future of Trade (FoT) perspective predicts that three drivers will impact trade flows in 2030: Russia-West fall-out, slower US / EU trade with China, and ASEAN trade growth. Businesses must understand risks, prioritize moves and contingency plans in the short-term, and build capabilities for resilience and apply scenario planning in the long-term. In the short-term, businesses must understand trade flow risks across their value chain, prioritize no-regrets moves, and intensify contingency planning. In the long-term, businesses must build capabilities to manage volatility and apply scenario planning for resilience.

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Perspective on Food Crisis

The War in Ukraine is causing a food system crisis that could last for 3-5 years, which is compounded by recent shocks like climate disruption and COVID-19. This crisis is putting a fragile and concentrated food system at a tipping point, and it requires the collective efforts of public, private, and social sectors to prevent long-term negative impacts. There is a need for immediate short-term relief and technical assistance, as well as longer-term solutions like trade agreements, supply diversification, and productivity investments.

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