The Burning Platform
Canada’s investment has stagnated since 2014, breaking a 30-year growth trend. The slowdown shows almost everywhere - 12 of 13 provinces and territories, 16 of 18 industries, and 5 of 5 asset classes. Canada has meaningfully underperformed not just the U.S., but also a broader set of advanced peer economies (G7 + Nordics + Australia). Investment directly drives one-fifth of GDP and builds the productive capacity that underpins long-run growth in wages, exports, and fiscal capacity. Reversing this stagnation is critical for Canada’s long-term prosperity.
The Opportunity Pipeline
We look at three distinct areas of opportunity that could reignite Canada’s investment trajectory:
First, the past: ~60% of the past decade’s underperformance came from mining and oil & gas extraction, historically Canada’s largest industry for private-sector capital formation; matching 2014 investment levels by 2030 - through 10–15 major projects across critical minerals, liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil sands, and pipelines - would re-capture historic potential.
Second, the present: the entire per-worker investment gap with the U.S. is concentrated in intellectual property (IP) and machinery & equipment (M&E), where Canada has recorded the slowest growth rate among peers; matching peer annual private-sector IP and M&E investment growth, moving from ~1% to ~3% over the next five years, would allow Canada to catch up on key productivity-enhancing asset classes.
Third, the future: large, capital-intensive opportunities for growth are emerging in AI infrastructure, electricity demand & grid expansion, and major public investments in defense and trade infrastructure; matching expected peer investment share in AI and electricity infrastructure while delivering on key public-investment commitments by 2030 would position Canada to capture the next wave of investment-driven growth.
Together, these ambitions could raise annual investment by ~$140 billion by 2030 and lift GDP by ~4.5%, helping close Canada’s investment-intensity gap with peers.
The Path Forward
To achieve these outcomes, Canada must become a place where big projects are built quickly and predictably, where businesses are rewarded for investing in innovation, and where the country competes effectively for global capital. Peers such as Germany, Italy, and Poland have shown how creative policy and urgency can deliver strong results - and Canada can do the same.