Across global markets, successful sales events on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Singles’ Day have become table stakes for retailers in an increasingly well-informed and consumer-driven retail landscape. These year-end sales events have evolved from one-day frenzies into a global smart-spending ritual, cementing their status as key retail moments.
Meanwhile, our latest Black Friday Consumer Study shows knowledge of these events is on the rise, with consumer awareness of Black Friday at 96% (up 1pp over 2024), 84% for Cyber Monday (up 2pp) and roughly 33% for Singles’ Day (up 6pp). Shopping intention for year-end sales events is also increasing, with around 79% of those aware of the sales saying they intend to shop (up 4pp over 2024)—even as ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer sentiment. (See “Survey Methodology.”)
Survey Methodology
Against this backdrop, five key developments highlight the 2025 shopping season:
- Year-end sales events have gained particular importance in the context of subdued yet improving consumer sentiment.
- The majority of consumers plan smart and start their search for deals by early November, although over a quarter still lean into last-minute opportunities as they arise, a slight increase from 2024.
- Essential spending (56%, down 3pp from 2024) and gifting (64%, down 2pp from 2024) are staying strong, while self-oriented and higher-cost purchases are gaining momentum.
- Consumers are increasingly empowered through generative AI (GenAI), making their deal-hunting more professionalized and data-driven. In fact, 48% have used or plan to use GenAI in their shopping journey, up 9pp from 2024.
- Consumers demand straightforward, clear discounts starting at around 30%, in line with 2024.
For retailers, addressing these developments requires engaging customers early and continuously, defending visibility within AI-driven shopping ecosystems, and ensuring clear and transparent communication while delivering promised discounts.
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Year-End Sales Events Are Gaining Importance
Our survey shows that global awareness of and intent to shop at year-end sales events continue to grow, reflecting rising engagement. Italy and the US lead the way, with 90% and 83% of consumers intending to shop, respectively. Meanwhile, countries like Denmark, at 60%, and the Czech Republic, at 64%, show upside potential. (See Exhibit 1.)
A variety of factors are contributing to this development, both macro- and microeconomic in nature.
On the macro level, although persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty—from ongoing conflicts to shifts in tariff policies—continue to affect consumer sentiment, there are early signs of stabilization. Consumers remain cautious, with 81% concerned about recent price increases for essentials and 71% wondering if tariffs and duties will raise prices. Nearly half say they have reduced non-essential spending and are monitoring prices more closely in recent months.
Yet, compared with 2024, shoppers are displaying slightly less conservative behavior. While many continue to trade down—with 38% buying more at discounters, 35% choosing more affordable brands, and 28% purchasing more private-label goods in the three months prior to the survey—these percentages are slightly lower than those we found in 2024. And shoppers in many markets report smaller net spending reductions in the previous six months compared to our 2024 results, particularly for furniture, jewelry, and clothing, which points to a nascent recovery in consumer confidence and willingness to spend.
On the micro level, perceived personal financial pressure is also easing slightly, although this trend differs by market. The share of consumers who feel pressure on their personal finances has decreased, with fewer reporting difficulties affording household expenses (41%) or needing to use savings for daily outlays (45%)—both 2pp lower than in 2024.
Consumers Plan Smart and Early
Nearly 60% of consumers plan to start researching deals in October or early November. While early planners dominate, however, we note a slight shift this year toward last-minute searches closer to the event (28%, up 2pp from 2024), observed across most countries. (See Exhibit 2.)
During these planning stages, consumers remain flexible and receptive. Only one-third of consumers have already decided on the exact brand and product they intend to purchase.
Consumers continue to start this shopping journey mostly online, looking to Amazon (52%, up 2pp) and Google (33%, up 1 pp) for research and inspiration. Meanwhile, social media platforms such as Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and TikTok are playing an increasingly important role, with more than 55% of shoppers using at least one for inspiration—up by around 2pp this year.
Despite this robust online influence early in the shopping journey, about 60% of shoppers continue to prefer an omnichannel purchasing experience, combining online and in-store—a pattern consistent with broader consumer behavior observed throughout the year. Among digital purchases, online marketplaces still account for around 55%, up from about 51% in 2024, and grew strongly this year across countries.
Even as they plan and research earlier, consumers are becoming increasingly strategic in their purchasing behavior: about 77% say they sometimes or often delay purchases earlier in the year to take advantage of major year-end sales deals. And among those planning to participate in the events, about 44% “definitely” plan to buy something (up from around 39% in 2024), signaling strong conversion potential and sustained appetite.
Gifting and Essential Spending Stay Strong
Around 64% of global consumers plan to buy Christmas or holiday presents during the year-end sales events in 2025, down slightly from around 66% in 2024 and 68% in 2023. This continued shift indicates that Christmas or holiday shopping is increasingly merging with these sales events, as consumers take advantage of promotions to complete their gift purchases well ahead of the holidays.
While buying gifts for others remains the top purchasing motivation, at 64% (down 2pp from 2024), the declines of the past two years may signal a gradual shift toward more self-oriented purchases, with consumers increasingly treating themselves during these events. Still, gifting remains especially strong in markets such as Czech Republic (around 75%), the US (about 68%), and Denmark (about 65%), where shoppers are significantly less likely to buy only for themselves.
Purchases of essentials also remain strong during these events, with around 56% of consumers stocking up globally on necessities (compared to around 59% in 2024), confirming that value-conscious behavior continues.
At the same time, around 44% of shoppers plan to shift part of their budget toward higher-priced discretionary items—an increase of about 3pp over 2024— reflecting renewed confidence and a “smart splurge” mindset. In Poland, for example, around 40% of consumer budgets will be spent on perceived luxury or high-priced items to leverage available discounts. (See Exhibit 3.)
Looking closely at a variety of categories, we find that clothing, at 52% (consistent with 2024); electronics, at 42% (up 2pp); and beauty, at 33% (up 3pp) remain the top planned spending items, a largely consistent pattern across most countries covered.
In addition, around 40% of global consumers plan to use flexible payment options, such as “buy now, pay later.” However, responses on this topic differ significantly across markets, with the uptake highest in Italy, at 48%, and lowest in Denmark at 20%.
GenAI-Empowered Shoppers Are on the Rise
GenAI tools such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Google AI have become practical shopping aids, guiding consumers at critical decision points and helping them make faster, more confident choices about what to buy, which brand to choose, and where to find the best deals.
Our 2025 survey reveals a clear surge in GenAI usage across all countries, with 48% of consumers having already used or planning to use GenAI during year-end sales events, a 9pp increase over 2024. They primarily use it for research and inspiration, showing strong interest in product comparisons (46%), deal-hunting (44%), and product research (42%).
These usage patterns are broadly consistent across markets, but the strongest momentum is seen in the US, Italy, and Poland, with the US standing out as an early leader. In fact, 51% of US consumers already used GenAI or are planning to use it in their future shopping journeys, an impressive increase of 16pp over 2024.
Usage is also expanding among older groups, with 42% of Gen X (up 8pp) and 31% of Boomers (up 7pp) having used it or planning to use it. Momentum remains strongest among younger shoppers, but rising adoption across all age groups confirms that GenAI is no longer niche but penetrating deeply into everyday shopping journeys. (See Exhibit 4.)
While not covered in this study, the emergence of agentic commerce and OpenAI’s launch of instant checkout show that GenAI is also evolving from a research and inspiration tool to one that supports purchasing activities. We will watch its impact closely during the coming year-end sales event season.
Consumers Demand Discounts and Clarity
Shoppers continue to look for straightforward discounts in 2025, with value consistency outweighing innovation in deal designs. In fact, “x% off everything” is still the most popular deal type for about 60% of shoppers (up 1pp over 2024)—far ahead of gamified or conditional offers, at about 6%—and the main threshold for a good deal is similar to 2024, at a discount of around 30%. These findings are consistent across countries, with the second and third most-popular deal types being “steep discounts” (51% of shoppers) and “free/reduced shipping costs” (44%)—both 2pp lower than in 2024.
While shoppers remain price-sensitive, they also want simplicity, transparency, and reliability. They look for clarity and fairness over gimmicks, allowing them to feel empowered to make the best deals for themselves during end-of-year sales events.
Savvy Retailers Can Win the Year-End Sales Race
Year-end sales events have become a must-win global retail moment. These key findings therefore carry important implications for retailers—both for success in the medium term and for building a sustained competitive advantage across future year-end sales event seasons. Success will depend on actions that range from engaging early and defending visibility in AI-driven shopping ecosystems to communicating clearly and delivering on promised discounts and value propositions.
- Engage early and continuously.
For future year-end sales events, winning retailers need to begin their efforts well ahead of the events and maintain continuous engagement with consumers. Many shoppers remain undecided on the exact brand or product during their planning phase—making this a critical period for retailers to influence purchase decisions.
By October, shoppers are already comparing and planning purchases. Launching early-access campaigns four to six weeks before major events drives anticipation and early traffic among loyal customers. Personalized offers and tiered reward systems create a lock-in effect, motivating repeat visits and sustained engagement.
At the same time, new customers should be drawn in through transparent “hero products” that signal accessibility and value. Early onboarding into loyalty ecosystems can also help convert first-time buyers into repeat shoppers before competitors capture them.
- Defend the consumer interface.
As GenAI tools increasingly influence the way shoppers search and compare, and agentic commerce rises, online visibility is the new shelf space. Retailers therefore risk losing ground if AI systems misread or fail to surface their offers.
To stay visible, they should invest in answer engine optimization (AEO), enhancing content so that it provides direct answers to AI-driven user queries. And they should ensure structured, accurate, and machine-readable product data—from specifications and reviews to sustainability details—so that AI and voice assistants correctly represent their assortment. Regular audits of AI-generated results will help identify and correct misrepresentation early.
Finally, retailers should strengthen direct customer access by guiding traffic toward owned channels. Exclusive loyalty rewards, personalized bundles, and value-added services such as free shipping or extended warranties will build preference and reduce dependence on intermediaries.
- Communicate clearly and deliver on promises.
Shoppers reward fairness and credibility. Retailers should use transparent price histories and consistent discount logic across channels to reinforce trust. By anchoring offers near the “fair deal” zone of roughly 30%, they can maintain conversion without eroding margins, and they can preserve profitability through price–value bundles. In addition, their execution must match their communication: reliable delivery, simple returns, and accurate fulfilment are now essential to sustaining credibility and ensuring repeat purchases.
Year-end sales events are critical battlegrounds for consumer attention, and the winners will be those who engage early, safeguard their visibility, and deliver on every promise, turning seasonal traffic into enduring loyalty.
