Restaurant prices have jumped close to 40% since 2019. It’s a key reason why people report not eating out as often and spending less when they do, according to a recent BCG survey of 6,000 consumers.
For the first time since we began tracking restaurant industry trends six years ago, people said that when they choose where to eat out, getting their money’s worth was more important than any other need, including satisfying a craving.
Restaurant industry consumption is slowing even as overall US personal consumption keeps growing. The situation is squeezing financials across the food service industry. However, restaurant brands can’t rely solely on the prospect of slowing inflation or an improved economy for customers to return.
(See “A Reckoning for the Restaurant Business.”)
A RECKONING FOR THE RESTAURANT BUSINESS
Pressure on growth isn’t even across all industry sectors. Within the limited service restaurant (LSR) category, fast casual dining, once a growth engine, is losing customers faster than quick serve (fast food) restaurants. For delivery aggregators—platforms that consolidate multiple delivery services onto a unified system—growth in the last half of 2025 was noticeably slower than it was in the first half of the year.
Restaurants cannot assume that demand—and the growth that comes with it—will return on its own. Higher prices are hard to reverse, especially for restaurant brands with thousands of mostly franchised locations. Executives may count on a stronger economy to restore demand. But the data suggests that any recovery will take time. Price-sensitive consumers, who tend to be lower-income and younger diners, are already cutting back, and changes to those behaviors are unlikely to happen quickly.
To succeed, restaurants must do a better job of delivering the overall value that diners expect for the higher prices they’re paying—a value that encompasses the quality of the food, service, and the experience.
Based on BCG’s survey findings and client experience, restaurants should use their brand’s “north star” value proposition to guide their growth strategy. They need to treat creating value as an end-to-end growth strategy with a coordinated approach to marketing, menus, loyalty, digital experiences, and channel and delivery services.
For More Consumers, Eating Out Isn’t on the Menu
To gain deeper insights into the state of the industry, we surveyed nearly 6,000 US consumers ages 18 to 65 who are restaurant decision makers about their dining habits and feelings. The findings make clear how much has changed since the end of the COVID era, when restaurants began raising prices to balance out lower foot traffic.
Consumers Are Cutting Back—but in Different Ways. As prices have risen, people have cut back on how often they eat away from home and what they spend. The slowdown is not confined to a single demographic or income level. Roughly a third (32%) of all consumers we surveyed who still buy restaurant food of some kind said that over the past six months they have cut back on what they spend. (See Exhibit 1.) The pullback is even deeper for lower-income households (40%) and Gen Z diners (37%), who face tighter budgets and are more sensitive to fees, surcharges, and perceived price increases.
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How people economize on restaurant spending depends on their income and age group. More lower-income consumers than consumers in other income or age groups cut restaurant costs by spending less per outing. Specifically, they order lower-priced items, look for deals or promotions, or shift to value menus. Boomers cut back primarily by cooking at home more often, 85% compared to 65% for Gen Z. And Gen Z economizes by ordering fewer or cheaper items, 40% compared to 30% for Boomers, along with cutting back on food delivery. Notably, a quarter of respondents said they expect to cut back even more in the months ahead. The portion of lower-income and Gen Z consumers who intended to spend less was higher than the average.
Value Has Become a Decisive Factor in Restaurant Choice. Consumers are reevaluating what they expect from restaurants and how they judge if an experience is worth it. For the first time in six years, “getting your money’s worth” mattered more than any other need, including satisfying a craving, to patrons of limited service restaurants. (See Exhibit 2.)
Getting their money’s worth was also the top need for patrons of full service restaurants. In all, 40% of respondents picked value as a top need when deciding where to eat out. The portion of consumers motivated by value-driven purchases was even higher for Boomers and lower-income groups.
The shift to value isn’t a consideration every time people eat out or get takeout. Concerns about value are most prominent in everyday, functional moments, such as solo trips to the drive-thru, getting takeout with friends, or routine sit-down meals. On these occasions, consumers are most willing to tighten their purse strings and scrutinize the value they’re getting for the price.
Consumers Equate Value with More Than Price. Price factors into how consumers define the value of a restaurant experience, but it’s not the whole story. In our survey, aspects of pricing such as affordability and the availability of low prices, value menus, and promotions accounted for 40% of the elements that consumers consider when evaluating restaurant value. The remaining 60% comprised quality, portions, service and speed, menu variety, and loyalty.
The breakdown of what contributes to satisfaction with value is slightly different for LSRs than it is for casual dining and fine dining restaurants. For the latter, service—including how quickly food is delivered, and the friendliness and attentiveness of the staff—accounts for 27% of customers’ satisfaction with the value they received. For limited service restaurants, the factor equivalent to service is speed, but the latter accounts for only 7% of how satisfied patrons are with dining at those establishments. (See Exhibit 3.)
Getting the Basics Right Matters to Perceived Value. Restaurants cannot deliver value at the expense of other core requirements that consumers expect from an experience dining out. Those table stakes elements include cleanliness, getting an order right, and food that tastes great and is served at the appropriate temperature. When establishments meet these requirements, consumer satisfaction with value averages 86%. When they don’t, it’s 32%. (See Exhibit 4.) The gap underscores a critical point: brands cannot price their way to value if they fall short on the fundamentals.
The Different Paths to Value
For the publicly traded restaurant brands evaluated as part of our analysis, we correlated customers’ value satisfaction with year-over-year same-store sales growth. We found that restaurants that outperform their peers—those brands that report both same-store sales growth and high value satisfaction—define value in a way that fits their overall brand strategy and operate in a way that supports it. Some examples:
Everyday Pricing and Personalized Offers. A leading off-premises pizza chain creates value by being a leader in everyday pricing. The company strengthens its value proposition by being a long-time leader in digital ordering and through a strong loyalty program that includes incentives and personalized offerings.
Reliable Prices. To differentiate itself from competitors, a leading US casual dining brand uses national advertising to promote the sharp price points it offers for its entry-level priced food. Customers report a high level of satisfaction with the brand’s prices and loyalty program and recognize that they’re making a tradeoff between reliable prices and food quality.
High Quality. A different major US casual dining brand focuses its value proposition on providing consistent high-quality food and service. The company’s positioning has earned high marks among customers for value satisfaction even though its regular prices are not the lowest compared to its peers.
How Brands Can Drive Growth in 2026
If higher prices continue to turn off customers and the conditions conducive to growth do not exist to the extent they once did, then improving performance will depend on how successful brands are at gaining traffic and market share from competitors. To accomplish that, brands need a clear vision of who they serve and how they differentiate themselves from rivals.
Put your brand’s north star at the heart of your efforts. Be clear about who your customers are, their needs, the dining occasions you aim to win, and the value proposition you aim to deliver. That becomes your north star. Depending on your industry niche, bringing your north star into focus could mean doubling down on offering convenient, affordable weekday meals on the go. Or it could mean focusing on high-quality, hospitality-driven, dine-in occasions. Use your end goal as a filter to guide how you invest time, resources, and capital and operating expenses. That in turn will help determine which growth-related actions to prioritize, and the consistent guest experience you need to deliver.
Evaluate all the actions you can take to increase traffic. Look at avenues for growth in every aspect of your operations:
- Marketing. Sharpen your brand’s positioning. Use data to target the right audiences and optimize your media mix. Present a clear message about your value proposition.
- Pricing and Menus. Design a pricing structure that supports your target value equation. Clarify price tiers and portions, and craft menus that reinforce perceived value. Ensure promotions drive incremental traffic rather than erode margins.
- Loyalty and Customer Relationship Management. Shift from broad, mass discounts to more personalized offerings. Use customer data and AI intelligence to tailor offerings to specific customer segments. Reward frequency and lifetime value to manage the full customer lifecycle.
- Digital and Technology Implementation. Accelerate acquiring customers who order online and strengthen analytics capabilities. Evaluate AI and GenAI use cases that support headquarters and field operations and drive customer value. Use the same or similar technologies to enhance digital touchpoints at restaurant locations. Improve conversion rates for customers who use apps or digital properties such as kiosks to make purchases.
- Channel and Delivery Service Strategies. Evaluate channels to expand, including existing websites, owned applications, and third-party marketplaces, as well as emerging channels such as agentic commerce. Clarify how each would contribute to operating margins, data ownership, and experience quality. Once it’s clear which channels are priorities, align pricing, promotions, menu availability, and customization to nudge demand toward them, while ensuring that ordering and fulfillment remain frictionless. Manage channels to balance reach with profitability.
Ensure fundamentals are sound. Consistently hot, great-tasting food, accurate orders, clean restaurants, and friendly service all matter. These basic minimum requirements underpin the success of any other actions you take to bolster growth and for customers to be satisfied with the value you deliver. Set expectations and use standard operating procedures, field trainings, and audits to make sure that restaurant employees and franchisees support these essentials. Evaluate how to adopt or upgrade data and technology to reduce human error, including through jointly run AI pilot projects at the store level, or to improve maintenance and repairs of existing equipment and investments in new gear.
Restaurants are finding it harder to grow than in the past. Thriving hinges on effectively translating a brand’s value proposition into a consistent, compelling reason for diners to visit. It requires deliberate investments in data, marketing capabilities, digital tools, and operational excellence. Restaurants with a clear north star and the discipline to activate a full set of growth levers in service of that value proposition will be best positioned to win back traffic and outperform their peers.
