BCG-WEF Project: Net-Zero Opportunities for Value-Chain Action

From Scarcity to Solutions: Food-Water Innovation in Asia and the Middle East

The world’s freshwater systems are buckling under unprecedented pressures: global freshwater demand is predicted to exceed supply by 40% by 2030, with the hydrological cycle—nature’s replenishment mechanism—increasingly disrupted by climate change, pollution, and over-extraction.

By 2050, this imbalance will intensify as water demand is expected to grow by 30% and food availability will need to increase by 60%. Agriculture, which already consumes 70% of freshwater withdrawals, faces shrinking rivers, erratic rainfall, and depleted aquifers. This convergence of scarcity and urgent demand places the food-water nexus at the epicenter of global leadership imperatives, demanding immediate action to rebalance humanity’s relationship with water.

Emerging economies are suffering disproportionate burdens, as growing stresses in food and water systems intersect with rapid development needs. Yet they are also proving that innovation can turn constraints into catalysts. The food-water tech market in Asia Pacific and the Middle East is projected to reach $209 billion by 2030, accounting for nearly 45% of the global total. Despite inherent challenges, China and the Middle East offer a blueprint for scalable, market-driven solutions, providing valuable inspiration for other developing countries navigating food-water transitions.

China: Driving Efficiency​​ and Self-Reliance

Despite having just 6% of the world’s freshwater supply and 9% of its arable land, China sustains 20% of the global population with self-sufficient staple foods. Breakthroughs in ​​precision agriculture​​, ​​blockchain traceability,​​ and ​​closed-loop circularity​​ have driven a 10-time income rise for farmers since 2000. An integrated system from policy to implementation emphasizes high-standard farmland development, R&D in bio-breeding, and smart irrigation. These efforts secure the country’s staple grain self-sufficiency and optimize agricultural water use efficiency, strengthening the sector’s resilience and efficiency.

Middle East: Testing Solutions for Arid Climate Futures

In a region where 14 countries face extreme water stress, innovation has turned deserts into breadbaskets. The Middle East accounts for ​​40% of global desalination output​​, with growing use of solar technologies and public-private partnership (PPP) models. Breakthroughs in salt-tolerant crops and soil bio-engineering now enable sustainable yields in marginalized environments.

Transforming Food and Water Systems

The transformation of global food and water systems requires innovations in technology and business models across multiple sectors, silos, and ecosystems. Research by the World Economic Forum and BCG proposes a holistic framework that encompasses innovation in areas that span the value chain and a blueprint for actions that can turn innovations into systemic resilience.

A Path Forward​​

The work on systemic transformation has only just begun. Across emerging markets and especially in China and the Middle East, this five-step blueprint offers a pathway to dismantle silos, align stakeholders, and embed innovation into the fabric of food-water systems.

Collaborative approaches are needed to bridge the disparate domains of policy, finance, skills training, and grassroots implementation. Only through public-private action at scale will it be possible to transition from fragmented pilots toward unlocking the full potential of food-water systems to act as engines of economic growth, sustainability, and resilience.

Toward Green Building Value Chains: China and Beyond

Accounting for 50% of the world’s new construction every year, China is the largest building market in the world. This fact is even more significant when juxtaposed with this one—buildings are responsible for 37% of global carbon emissions. As the world experiences a surge in construction, the need to transition to green buildings will become urgent.

China, home to more than half of the global production capacity for several building materials, is central to decarbonization efforts. The building industry’s value chain involves multiple public and private entities, several of which are in hard-to-abate sectors. The green transition of China’s building value chain will not only create value and new business opportunities for industry players in the country, but also boost the development and adoption of green building products and services globally.

A building’s environmental impact extends across its life cycle, from material production to demolition. Building materials come from sectors such as steel and cement, which emit carbon at every stage: production, transportation, installation, and demolition. Building operations consume large amounts of energy for heating, cooling, lighting, and other functions. Planning for a fully green transition of buildings must take this whole value chain into account.

This report by the World Economic Forum and BCG offers a comprehensive analysis of the building value chain, market opportunities, and barriers to the green building transition. It identifies 11 levers that offer abatement potential of approximately 80% if implemented well. (See the exhibit.) Together, they are expected to generate $1.8 trillion in value by 2030 for a range of stakeholders resulting from rent premiums/brown discounts, new market growth, differentiated value propositions, and enhanced talent attraction.

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To make the most of this opportunity, early movers in the building value chain need to act promptly. Promoting green buildings in China, where most of the largest building material producers, constructors, and real estate developers operate, will have a significant impact on both the domestic and the global building market. Achieving the goal of planning, building, and operating green, sustainable buildings depends on the collective, consistent action of stakeholders along the value chain—starting now.

Greening the Renewable Value Chain: China’s Experience

China accounts for almost 60% of the new renewable capacity expected to become operational globally by 2028, according to the International Energy Agency. Around 80% of the world’s solar panel modules, 70% of wind turbines, and 80% of lithium batteries are manufactured in China.

At COP28, more than 130 governments committed to tripling their renewable capacity by 2030. While a welcome move, renewables themselves have a significant incremental carbon impact. By 2050, if the life cycle carbon intensities of all power sources remain at current levels, about 90% of electricity generation will come from renewables, but renewables’ share of carbon emissions in the energy sector will reach nearly 60%, up from just 2% in 2020.¹

The successful green transition of China’s renewable value chain can pave the way for other countries to follow suit.

The renewable value chain is complex and involves multiple players—materials suppliers, equipment manufacturers and OEMs; project developers and owners; engineering, procurement, and construction contractors; operators; technology providers; end users; and recyclers. Making the transition to renewables that come from greener value chains requires all participants to pursue a common goal.

The World Economic Forum and BCG have identified seven levers that can help industry on this journey. Collectively, these levers have the potential to achieve about 70% abatement over the renewable value chain and generate global market value worth $2 trillion by 2030, unlocking numerous green opportunities for stakeholders. Tomorrow’s renewables will provide clean energy that the industry will manufacture, operate, and handle sustainably. To achieve this promise, stakeholders along the value chain must plan, align, and take collaborative action today.

Note
1. The number is based on the development of renewables under a net-zero scenario forecast. The life cycle carbon emission is calculated, included embodied and operational carbon emission. The life cycle carbon emission intensities used are from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in the US: https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/life-cycle-assessment.html.